What does the IMD seasonal monsoon forecast mean and how should I use it?

The seasonal forecast is IMD's outlook for the whole monsoon rainfall as a percentage of the long term average, and it is a planning guide for the broad season, not a forecast for any single day or village. IMD usually issues a first long range forecast before the season and updates it as the monsoon nears, giving categories like normal, below normal or above normal for the country and later for regions. Use it to set your overall risk plan. If the outlook is below normal, lean towards drought tolerant and shorter duration crops, save water and keep a contingency plan. If it is normal or above, you can plan your usual crops but still watch for dry spells within the season. The seasonal figure is for the country first, so wait for the regional and your district outlook, and remember even a normal total can be unevenly spread with long gaps. Combine it with the short range forecast and your KVK advisory through the season for day to day decisions.