compare two crops for profit decision crop selection net return risk water labour planning
3 Answers
When two crops both look good, do not compare only the expected price, compare them on net return, risk, resource fit and market, and the winner usually becomes clear. Step one, work out net return per acre for each, meaning expected income minus all costs of seed, fertiliser, labour, water and harvest, using a low, medium and high price so you see the range, not one rosy number. Step two, judge the risk of each, how badly each is hit by bad weather, pests or a price crash, and whether there is a fallback like MSP procurement. Step three, check resource fit, which one suits your soil, water and labour better and clashes less with your other field work. Step four, check the market, which crop has a surer buyer and steadier price near you. The crop that gives a reasonable return even at the low price, fits your resources, and has a reliable buyer usually beats the one with a higher but shaky top end. If they are still close, split your land between both to spread risk. Run your own numbers with current local rates and confirm cost and yield assumptions with your KVK.
I learned to write costs on paper for both crops before deciding. The crop that looked more profitable had much higher input cost, so after subtracting everything the other one was actually better. Pen and paper saved me.
Also think which crop you can sell easily. One crop had higher profit on paper but no buyer nearby. Profit you cannot sell is not profit.