I want to plan my full season crop mix using the long range forecast, not just react week to week. How should I approach this?
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Use the seasonal and long range forecast to set your broad crop mix and risk level before the season, then use the short range forecast through the season to fine tune sowing, spraying, irrigation and harvest. Think of it in two layers. Before the season, look at the IMD seasonal monsoon outlook and any El Nino or La Nina signal, plus your district contingency plan, to decide your crop mix. In a below normal outlook, give more area to drought tolerant and short duration crops, keep some land flexible, and save water. In a normal or above outlook, plan your usual crops but still keep a backup. During the season, use the 7 day forecast and your KVK agromet advisory for the day to day calls. Spread your risk by not putting everything in one crop or one sowing date, since even a good seasonal forecast can have dry spells. Keep alternate seed ready. This two layer approach, broad plan from the long range forecast and fine tuning from the short range, gives the steadiest results in dryland farming.
I never put all land in one crop now. A mix of a cash crop and a drought tolerant one keeps me safe whatever the monsoon does.
Broad plan before the season, weekly tuning after. That is how I farm in the desert now and it works far better than guessing.