Want to use the long range monsoon forecast to choose crops and plan kharif. How reliable is it.
5 जवाब
IMD issues a long range monsoon forecast before the season that indicates whether rainfall is likely to be normal, above or below normal for the country and broad regions, and it is useful for broad planning rather than exact dates. Use it as a guide: if a weak or delayed monsoon is indicated, lean toward shorter duration and drought tolerant varieties, keep contingency seed ready, and plan water saving like drip and farm pond use. If a good monsoon is likely you can plan normally. For actual sowing and operations rely on the twice weekly district agromet advisory and the short range forecast, since the seasonal outlook gives the big picture only. Always combine the forecast with your local KVK crop contingency plan, soil moisture and water availability before deciding.
The year a below normal monsoon was forecast I planted shorter duration soybean and kept water ready. It was the right call when rain came late. I use it for planning, not exact sowing date.
Seasonal forecast tells the big picture only. For the actual day to day I follow the district advisory. Together they help me decide crop and variety.
Whatever the forecast says, keep some contingency seed of a short duration crop in reserve. Even in a normal forecast year the monsoon broke for three weeks for us once, and that backup seed let me re sow quickly.
Do not bet the whole farm on the seasonal outlook. I split my plots between a normal duration and a shorter variety so I am covered either way. The forecast is a guide, not a guarantee.